Bitcoin (BTC) held $20,000 into Oct. 5 with trader targets still including a fresh high before rejection.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
$21,000 upside target to precede new lows
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $20,470 on Bitstamp overnight before returning lower.
The pair succeeded in maintaining the 2017 old all-time high as support, something on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators had hoped would endure as a positive sign.
“BTC is still in a congested range,” it summarized in comments the day prior.
“The retest of technical resistance at the 50-Day MA was rejected. Now I want to see a retest of support at the 2017 Top. Bulls may be losing momentum, but placed a buy wall at $20k to hold price up.”
Material Indicators was analyzing a chart of the Binance BTC/USD order book showing investor behavior involving different sized transactions.
It referred to its 50-day moving average (MA), which at $20,170 had still not flipped to decisive support on the day.
BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50MA. Source: TradingView
Popular trader Il Capo of Crypto meanwhile continued an extant thesis involving a trip to $21,000 before a steeper, more enduring comedown.
“Local top is not in yet imo, but it’s very very close,” he told Twitter followers.
“20500-21000 hasn’t been touched and there’s no ltf distribution. Expecting the last leg up soon. Then ltf bearish signs, and reversal to new lows (14k-16k).”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Il Capo of Crypto/ Twitter
Signs of good times ending for U.S. dollar
Turning to the U.S. dollar index (DXY), a key macro trigger for crypto markets, there was some relief on the horizon.
Related: BTC price still not at ‘max pain’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
A fresh 20-year high was still due, according to Il Capo of Crypto, but this would be followed by a longer-term break of the “parabola” in place on dollar strength since 2021.
“We could see a push deeper into the box giving BTC/SPX more time to rally,” fellow trader Mayne explained in an accompanying thread, also mentioning the S&P 500.
“If this area fails, we could see a break in the dollar’s parabolic ascent and perhaps a much longer sustained rally.”
DXY circled 110.6 points at the time of writing, having narrowly preserved 110 as support — still marking its lowest levels since Sep. 21.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
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