According to Bybit’s Hao Yang, while the halving is linked to Bitcoin bull cycles, ETF inflows are primarily responsible for the current surge.
Since its most recent halving in 2020, the price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 650%. In the event that history repeats itself, Bitcoin might hit $435,000 before the 2028 halving.
Could the Price of Bitcoin Reach $435,000 by the 2028 Halving?
According to TradingView data, the price of Bitcoin has increased by over 658% since its last halving in 2020 and is presently trading at around $66,000.
Less than three weeks will pass until the 2024 Bitcoin halving takes place. If past chart patterns hold true, the price of Bitcoin, which is currently $66,000, would halve to $434,280 per coin in 2028 if the current cycle continues.
However, over time, the returns from Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies have decreased. Before the initial halving in 2012, the value of Bitcoin grew from almost nothing to $12.50, a rise of more than 12,400%. After the 2016 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by 5,200% to $650, and by 1,200% to $8,500 after the 2020 halving.
In order to reach the present 658%, Bitcoin’s average price rallies dropped by 45% per cycle. In the event that this trend of diminishing returns continues, Bitcoin will have a 360% surge in the upcoming cycle, culminating in a price of about $303,600 BTC at the 2028 halving.
The Halving of Bitcoin or the Greater Influence of Etfs?
Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, told Cointelegraph that the recent spike in price of Bitcoin is primarily due to inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and has nothing to do with the impending halving.
From a highly rigorous quantitative perspective, there is no evidence to show a positive association between the price of BTC and the halving event. But there are a lot of ways to interpret history. Of course, my goal is $435,000 by 2028, but I won’t be overly ambitious.
A study analysis by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas on February 26 states that if Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold ETFs, which might happen in the next two years, a six-figure Bitcoin price seems even more likely.
Moreover, the growth rate of Bitcoin ETFs is significantly faster than that of gold ETFs since their inception in 2004. According to Sam Wouters, head of contact at River, Bitcoin is actually “speedrunning” the price of gold, which is five times higher than it was on March 29.
“Bitcoin is essentially just the trajectory of gold speedrun five times.” Bitcoin’s recent ten years appear to be a condensed version of the last fifty years of gold. Seems sense why some folks become sour.
