Historical chart patterns suggest that Bitcoin may be preparing for a pre-halving fall even though it recently hit a new all-time high of almost $73,700.
A Pre-Halving Correction in Bitcoin: Is it Coming Soon?
Preceding the April halving, there are growing indications of overheating, and the price of Bitcoin may fall precipitously. According to anonymous analyst Rekt Capital, this would be consistent with the 38% retracement prior to the 2016 halving and the 20% pre-halving correction in 2020.
Although the fall may be less than in prior cycles, the analyst expects a retrace that may extend up to 77 days. More specifically:
“Bitcoin saw a -18% decline in January and a -14% decline in early March of this year. Consequently, if a pre-halving retrace were to happen, it’s feasible that it would happen more on the shallow side than the deeper side.
Price of Bitcoin Underperforming Earlier Halvings
But what if this isn’t the same historical period? For example, the current cycle is already different because, prior to the halving, the price of Bitcoin reached a new all-time high.
Second, according to historical data published by Ecoinometrics in a March 12 X post, Bitcoin has not yet reached its growth trajectory from past halving cycles:
One Bitcoin should now be worth between $100,000 and $300,000 if its development trajectory had resembled that of the previous two cycles.
Because of this, there is still further upside potential before the halving, especially since the previous all-time high price may now serve as a launching pad for it.
Rekt Capital claims that Bitcoin has successfully retested its previous all-time high of $69,200, which is currently the new support level. The analyst made this claim in an X post on March 12.
Bitcoin Price has Halved to $150,000, According to Bernstein
Looking ahead, asset management company Bernstein predicted in a note to investors on Monday that Bitcoin would peak at roughly $150,000 by mid-2025, following the halving. Following the halving, Bernstein analysts Mahika Sapra and Gautam Chhugani now predict that the price of bitcoin will “break out.”
They are “more convinced” of their 2023 price target due to the increased demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
A further $60 billion is projected for 2025, and $10 billion for 2024. Since the ETF launched on January 10th, in 40 trading days, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs had already exceeded $9.5 billion.
The researchers said, “At this run rate, Bitcoin ETFs would surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for [the] remainder of 2024.”
Additionally, given that the current underperformance “is probably the last window before halving,” Bernstein encouraged clients to invest in Bitcoin miners.
But in contrast to Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which has “brought forward” its long-term Bitcoin price estimate of more than $1 million, Bernstein’s price target is low.
