The upcoming block subsidy halving of Bitcoin is expected to cause a decline, while the exact moment is still unknown.
The well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital forecast on February 20 in his most recent YouTube video that the price of bitcoin will mirror the bull runs of 2020 and 2016.
A Bitcoin Analyst Considers the “Pre-halving Retrace” Timeline for 2024
For more than a week, the price of bitcoin has been moving in a small range, with $52,000 serving as a resistance level.
Even though sentiment and the performance of altcoin prices have suffered as a result, knowledgeable market watchers are still upbeat.
Key phases shared by both bull market settings were found by Rekt Capital through analysis of prior runs to all-time highs.
“In the past, upside leading into the halving has always been preceded by a macro downtrend break,” he clarified.
Following a pre-halving retrace, a post-halving reaccumulation phase, and parabolic price movement toward new all-time highs, we have described the next events.
The accompanying chart revealed that although BTC/USD broke its first downward trend line, it was thereafter trapped in a resistance zone that it had previously developed. What is now lacking in 2024 is breaking through and then retesting as support, or the “pre-halving retrace” phase.
Rekt Capital went on, “We’re going to have the same thing in this cycle as well.”
About $45,000 is the zone of interest for the pre-halving pullback.
Notice how we are never able to do that in the pre-halving phase throughout time? That is the question he posed: “Are we going to retest this resistance this month in the pre-halving period?”
Rekt Capital previously stated that the BTC/USD pair had fully entered its pre-halving run-up and that significant price events were occurring this cycle more quickly than in previous ones.
Focus shifts to BTC price levels below $50,000
Others who were commenting on the present price action said that the rangebound moves in the market did not provide much of a reason to become negative. The creator of the research platform Cubic Analytics, Caleb Franzen, informed viewers on X on February 22 that the price of Bitcoin was exactly the same as it was seven days prior.
For the previous seven days, it has fluctuated between $50.6k and $53k, but the lowest daily close was $51.6k, which is exactly the current price at which it is trading. I don’t get the bear victory laps or the panic.
Analyst Matthew Hyland responded by largely agreeing and pointing out the importance of the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 from the all-time highs, which is a little above $48,000.
He did, however, issue a warning: “If $49k folds, then the picture changes but consolidation in an uptrend favors a continuation of the uptrend.”
